BetBreakingNews.com (BBN) is a Prediction Reporting Publication; it is not a news publication. We track and report on all bets in the arenas of world events, politics and entertainment that are sure to be breaking news with international news media outlets.
BBN sources its predictive data via licensed and legally operating betting companies from all over the world. The data BBN uses to formulate predictions are the wagering odds these companies offer. Betting companies reveal public sentiment on important impending events via the odds they publish. The “reveal” occurs via professional real-time monitoring of live wagering lines as betting companies’ try to attract even money on both sides of the bets they offer.
BetBreakingNews.com empowers its readership to, Know the News Before it Happens!
Most news events are usually perceived, predicted and debated prior to actualizing in the real world. It is regularly known by the public, within approximations, what events are very likely to occur no matter how horrific or wonderful. It is precise predictive data that is usually lacked by the general public while known by few.
Scholars and professionals studying the betting industry have noted over time that when people wager for personal profit on the anticipated outcome of events, in a somewhat anonymous environment, the betting public get it right more often than pundits and pollsters.
This publication, BetBreakingNews.com, tracks legal betting markets and reports on their predictive abilities related to important happenings in world events, politics and entertainment.
BETTING THE NEWS
For anyone interested, there is an abundance of information to study regarding societies betting on future news events. If you would like to understand more about this topic, here are some links to more information…
Licensed Betting Companies [FP]
Prediction Markets [PM]
Virtual Money Prediction Markets [VM]
Links to Articles
- Why economists love Intrade – and why the government hates it
- A Look at Google’s Prediction Market
- A Bettor World
- Is Intrade dead? How the prediction market rose from obscurity
- Intrade Investors Vote Their Wallets Not Biases to Pick Winners
BOOKS AND AUTHORS
- The Wisdom of Crowds
- Information Markets
- Oracles: How Prediction Markets Turn Employees into Visionaries
PROFESSORS AND SPECIALISTS
SPECIAL REPORTS AND STUDIES
- Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google
- Prediction Markets
- The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective
- Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Firm X
- Microsoft Bing Enters Prediction Business
News Betting History & Timeline
400 BC – Aristotle of Ancient Greece wrote in admiration of Thales. Thales was a philosopher who used his forecasting abilities to predict seasonal olive crop production in advance of season commencement. Thales developed a “financial device” and made agreements with olive-press owners to guarantee him exclusive use of their olive presses when the harvest was ready.
1500-1700 – There were historical wagering markets on both civic elections and the papacy throughout Italy. Betting was common in the Italian city-states in the early modern period. Recorded quotes of betting odds on papal succession appear as early as 1503
1760-1780 – British newspapers in the 1760s, 1770s, and 1780s are filled with brief notes about public betting in London over events in the life of John Wilkes, the fate of the Stamp Act, and the other political outcomes.
1816 – Future USA President James Buchanan lost three tracts of land in northwest Pennsylvania on an election wager.
1828 – Martin Van Buren, future eighth President of the United States (1837-1841), as candidate for the Governor of New York in 1828 wrote the following to a fellow politician: “Bet on Kentucky, Indiana and Illinois jointly if you can, or any two of them; don’t forget to bet all you can.”
1832 – Archival records reveal that John Nevitt of Natchez, Mississippi placed a $960 bet on Andrew Jackson’s re-election. This sum was worth the equivalent of $25,000 in 2010.
1868 to 1940 – Well organized markets for betting on presidential elections existed in the United States of America from 1868 until 1940. It was not uncommon for betting activity to dominate transaction volumes at stock exchanges on Wall Street in the late 1800s and early 1900s.
1988 – The faculty at the University of Iowa develops the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) to be an Internet-based teaching and research tool. It was built to enable students to invest real money ($5.00-$500.00) and to trade in a variety of contracts. Since its inception in 1988, over 100 universities throughout the world have enrolled in the IEM (mainly large research-oriented institutions such as Harvard, MIT, Michigan, and Northwestern).
1996 – Hewlett-Packard pioneers the usage of prediction market related applications in sales forecasting and continues to uses prediction markets in several of its business units.
1999 – Intrade, an online trading exchange website, was opened by an Irish businessman named John Delaney. This Dublin, Ireland based prediction market offered its members the ability to bet on the outcomes of non-sports-related future events.
2001 – Dr. Michael Foster convinces DARPA (The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency), a research think tank within the USA Department of Defense, to establish Policy Analysis Market that would allow trading in various forms of geopolitical risk. The project was discontinued around August 2003 under strong opposition from US Senators representing citizens concerned that this theoretical prediction market would reward participants for accurately predicting the assassination of heads of state and acts of terrorism.
2004 – “The Wisdom of Crowds” is published by James Surowiecki, a staff writer at The New Yorker. This book succinctly educates the non-academic public about the value prediction markets offer to citizens and societies.
2005 – Scientist, Robin Hanson Ph.D., known as “the father of modern prediction markets” opens consensuspoint.com. Dr. Hanson pioneered the field in 1988 as the first person to write in detail about using markets to improve forecasts and inform decisions. In 1990, he led the first internal corporate market.
2005 – Google.com launches its internal prediction market.
2007 – Inventors Henry G. Berg and Todd A. Proebsting file US Patent on behalf of the Microsoft Corporation titled “Continuous betting interface to prediction market”.
2008 – Hewlett-Packard Development Company launches BRAIN (Behaviorally Robust Aggregation of Information Networks). BRAIN is a powerful web-based tool that uses proprietary algorithms to tap into the collective wisdom of employees. BRAIN has been successfully applied internally at HP enabling them to improve operating profit forecasting by a significant percentage over traditional methods.
2014 – As of the date BetBreakingNews.com goes live, there are multiple for-profit commercial betting companies and prediction markets operating successfully throughout the world, a handful of reputable academic institutions running prediction markets with histories of verified accurate track records and an impressive list of Fortune Global 500 corporations utilizing in-house prediction market technologies to guide major decisions.