Why Polymarket US Won't Be The Polymarket We Know and Love
September 24, 2025
By Dan Zimmermann (Verse Gaming) and Sean Guillory (BetBreakingNews.com)
When Polymarket announced that it had secured CFTC approval to launch in the United States, the immediate question wasn’t just when it would launch (though there is a Polymarket market on that) it was what Polymarket would show up on American soil. The company has been teasing its U.S. rollout on its site, but the fine print is already clear: Polymarket US won’t look like the wild, crypto-driven, offshore marketplace that captured headlines during the 2024 election cycle. In fact, it will be an entirely separate platform.
And that raises our central question: Will Polymarket US actually still be Polymarket?
What Made Polymarket “Polymarket”?
To even ask that question, we need to define what Polymarket is.
The offshore Polymarket is (and still is) a crypto-only prediction market, semi-anonymous (no KYC and one would need a chain analysis solution to trace activity to someone) where just about any topic is fair game. It has run markets on geopolitics, civil wars, celebrity gossip, and yes, sometimes uncomfortable topics that no U.S.-regulated operator would ever list.
It’s also a place where insiders feel comfortable betting. Hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman famously said “there is no such thing as insider trading on Polymarket”, and he wasn’t wrong because the lack of U.S. regulation allowed bets on privileged information in a way that would never fly on Wall Street.
Add in Polymarket’s public blockchain ledger where every trade can be tracked, analyzed, and memed in real time and you had a perfect storm of transparency, audacity, and cultural relevance.
This cocktail made Polymarket the clear leader in prediction markets until January 2025, when Kalshi seized the spotlight when they started to run more sports focused prediction markets. Polymarket’s identity is to push boundaries and that defiance was part of its charm.
The U.S. Pivot: Sanitization by Necessity
After purchasing little-known DCM provider QCEX in July and receiving CFTC approval in September, Polymarket is preparing to go live in America. As of mid-September, Polymarket was in the final compliance phase, sending updated oversight and conduct manuals to regulators for review (per Dan Bernstein).
But legitimacy comes at a cost:
Offchain. CFTC regulators, despite their flexibility, have not yet approved any onchain (read: Blockchain powered) platforms as financial institutions. That will remain with Polymarket’s conditional approval.
KYC and insider bans. Like Kalshi, Polymarket US will need to adopt strict prohibitions on certain users. The days of anonymous insider trading on Polymarket are over.
Content sanitization. Markets on civil wars, military strikes, or violent crime suspects will be more heavily scrutinized because the CFTC explicitly outlaws (1) “activity that is unlawful under any Federal or State law,” (2) “terrorism,” (3) “assassination,” (4) “war,” (5) “gaming,” or (6) “other similar activity ... determined by rule or regulation, to be contrary to the public interest.”
Payments. To attract mainstream users, Polymarket US will almost certainly need to support fiat deposits otherwise it would be leaving money on the table.
In other words, the things that made Polymarket unique (its edgy markets, crypto-native anonymity, and an irreverent tone) will likely disappear on the US exchange. Which leads us back to the question: if Polymarket US strips away those traits, what remains? And why would someone choose it over Kalshi?
The Competition Problem
Kalshi has already established itself as the buttoned-up, regulator-friendly alternative. It’s gone toe-to-toe with the CFTC in court (and won) to offer political contracts. It has leaned hard into sports, even as it faces lawsuits from tribal and state regulators for its sports markets (per Dustin Gouker). And it’s even building a crypto ecosystem of its own to make up ground with the crypto-native community - most of whom favor Polymarket's platform.
So if Polymarket US plays by the same rules, with the same fiat rails, the same regulatory guardrails, and none of the offshore bravado…how does it stand out?
Sure, Polymarket raised $255 million in June. They may be on the verge of another massive raise right now. They can buy attention, at least for a while. But will they be anything other than “Kalshi, but blue”?
Why Even Bother with the U.S. Market?
There’s another awkward question here: why does Polymarket even want to re-enter the U.S. at all?
It’s an open secret that VPN access to the current offshore Polymarket is easy. Unlike sportsbooks that deploy tools like GeoComply to lock down regions, Polymarket is relatively porous. Sharps, insiders, and crypto enthusiasts already know how to access it.
So who is Polymarket US really for? I think we can make an educated guess:
(25%) Recreational bettors with fiat wallets. The folks who aren’t crypto-native but want to dabble in politics, entertainment, and pop culture.
(25%) Normies who don’t want to skirt the law. Users who would never use a VPN but might download an app if it looked legit. Call them the casual predictors.
(50%) Sports bettors. Polymarket rarely emphasized their sports markets as a core selling point before Kalshi started flirting with CFTC approval for sports markets. Now, that's all they advertise.
Our bet is that Polymarket is primarily aiming to take the sports betting throne.
If that’s the target, then Polymarket US can’t just be a watered-down version of its international cousin. It has to actively reimagine itself.
Betting on The Favorites
Polymarket is the league leader in edgy markets. Want to bet on Israel to bomb Iran again? You can. Want to bet on the sexual orientation of criminals? You can. Want to bet on a dildo making a surprise appearance at the next WNBA game? Be their guest.
But what Polymarket is truly chasing with this move to the US is a piece of the sports betting action that Kalshi has shown to be a lucrative opportunity.
Sports betting regulations are inherently fragmented. States develop unique frameworks, with quirky particulars - like no credit card depositing in Massachusetts or no betting on NY colleges inside New York. Despite their flaws, state gambling commissions have brought the industry from their infancy to a true mature ecosystem with competition and responsible gaming standards.
But companies like DraftKings have payed over $40 million dollars to offer their regulated, against the house sportsbook in 25 states - and that doesn’t include legal fees and compliance obligations.
Kalshi has slammed a federal door in the face of state regulators across the gaming industry with their sports prediction markets.
For a company that literally argued sports are prohibited categories for CFTC exchanges to offer in the past, they sure are confident in their approach now. So confident, in fact, that they have now launched player prop markets in 50 states - a feature only brought to you historically by sportsbooks and sportsbook DFS clones.
Polymarket is simply driving down the lanes that Kalshi paved through their lobbying efforts and cozy connections. With Donald Trump Jr. now an investor in Polymarket and an advisor in Kalshi, it’s reasonable that both companies are feeling quite comfortable with their current risk appetite around sports markets.
Although Kalshi has generated significant buzz around their sports trading products since kickoff of the NFL season in September, Polymarket must believe that they can be a dominant player in the world of sports ‘predictions’.
And they are probably right. The appetite for two way sports markets that let users trade in and out of positions live in-app is a serious upgrade to the user’s capabilities and experiences over traditional sportsbooks.
That being said - there are significant limitations on what CFTC prediction markets can do when it comes to mimicking the user experience and betting experience on sportsbooks. I write more about this here - but to save you a click, it comes down to customization and retention.
Sportsbook custom parlay builders generate the vast majority of revenue - and critical retention features like in-app bonus currency, odds boosts, and injury protections make up the reasons that players keep coming back to their sites. Prediction markets will have neither.
However, Polymarket aims to continue the Kalshi-born trend of pushing CFTC regulators to the absolute brim. But the bet they are making on freedom of motion in sports and elsewhere is not necessarily a slam dunk. There are potential questions being asked around these platform’s ability to operate, and the allies they hoped to have may not reach their desired target.
All that being said, it’s a good bet that Polymarket is interested in competing with not just Kalshi - but DraftKings, FanDuel, and the rest of the regulated sports betting cabal.
RIP VIPs
Polymarket may be making their triumphant return to the US with their eyes fixed on the sports betting prize - but that certainly is not their sole focus or target. The introduction of mainstream betting on the Oscars, Heisman Trophy winner, and the top artist on Spotify will hold real value in a world constantly gamifying itself.
There is plenty of potential for users to enjoy the US experience, free from the requirement of VPNs and crypto wallets.
But the most passionate Polymarket users? They won’t touch it.
Why? Simple. KYC’d financial institutions are the antithesis of the web3 culture.
Kalshi has been getting slammed online for pretending to be a crypto company despite that never being true. Being onchain means something to millions of people who have learned to use crypto as their native language.
That’s what I mean when I say Polymarket’s user base is crypto native. It’s not because they don’t like fiat - it’s because they don’t trust it.
Players wagering serious wagers ($10,000-$1m+) are not interested in governments being able to track those transactions. The tax implications of registering an account with Polymarket USA alone is enough to turn off whale-sized bettors. Why risk the IRS (or what remains of it) knowing about a single cent you win on your ‘Does Trump say ‘tremendous’ winnings?
And whale traders are not the only type of traders that an onchain Polymarket appeals to. The real fuel that flames the fire of Polymarkets is that there is always the risk (or opportunity) that true insiders are participating in the market.
Take for example, the Israeli strike on Hamas officials in Qatar in September. The Polymarket for if Israel strikes Qatar in 2025 saw insider activity spike the price hours before the attack - and it wasn’t the first time an insider placed action down on strikes before they happened.
On a US Polymarket, neither that market nor that user would be eligible or safe from the law.
Conclusion
With no insider incentive to take anonymous action and no ‘tax free’ stablecoin withdrawals, a CFTC approved Polymarket loses much of its charm overnight.
So will Polymarket US truly be Polymarket? No, not really.
But does that preclude it from being extremely successful at what it will do best? Absolutely not.
Just don’t expect the top 100 wallets, or even the top 10,000 wallets, to make the migration to Polymarket US.
